While restaurants are projected add over 500,000 summer jobs for the fourth consecutive year, hiring will be somewhat dampened compared to recent years, according to the NRA’s Chief Economist Bruce Grindy. His Economist’s Notebook commentary and analysis appears regularly on Restaurant.org and Restaurant TrendMapper.
Restaurants are expected to add 515,000 jobs this summer season, according to the National Restaurant Association’s 18th Annual Eating and Drinking Place Summer Employment Forecast. The projected 2016 gain would represent the fourth consecutive year in which restaurants add at least 500,000 jobs during the summer season.
Summer is the busiest season for restaurants in many parts of the country, and the stronger business leads to additional employment opportunities at all levels of a restaurant operation. Roughly one in six eating and drinking place establishments operate on a seasonal basis, and many of these are only open for business during the summer season. These seasonal businesses do all of their hiring for the summer months, and therefore are responsible for the bulk of the summer jobs.
Although restaurants will add over 500,000 jobs this summer, hiring will be somewhat dampened compared to recent years, with the projected increase of 515,000 seasonal jobs representing the smallest gain since 2012. Eating and drinking places added a record 551,200 jobs during the 2013 summer season, followed by gains of 515,900 jobs during the 2014 season and 527,100 jobs during the 2015 season.
The expected curtailed hiring during the 2016 summer season will be due in large part to higher labor costs that restaurant operators face in many regions of the country, as well as a relatively tighter labor market compared to recent years.
The states projected to add the most eating and drinking place jobs during the 2016 summer season are New York (44,400), California (41,700), Massachusetts (30,700), Texas (29,700), Ohio (25,500), New Jersey (25,300), Illinois (22,800) and Michigan (21,900).
The states projected to register the largest proportional employment increase during the 2016 summer season are Maine (32.1 percent increase), Alaska (18.9 percent increase), Delaware (17.6 percent increase), Rhode Island (15.1 percent increase) and New Hampshire (14.3 percent increase).
Due to the fact that their busiest seasons for travel and tourism are not in the summer months, two states are projected to register declines in eating and drinking place employment during the 2016 summer season: Florida (-10,900) and Arizona (-7,600).
Summer employment is defined as the average number of eating and drinking place jobs in June, July and August. The number of summer jobs is the difference between the projected total 2016 summer employment and the March 2016 employment level. Generally, the U.S. restaurant industry begins to ramp up its summer seasonal hiring in April, and it peaks in June, July and August. Eating and drinking places account for approximately three-fourths of the total restaurant and foodservice workforce.
The restaurant industry is typically the nation’s second largest creator of seasonal jobs during the summer months – ranking only behind the construction industry.