National Restaurant Association - Forecast 2013

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News & Research

Forecast 2013

Projecting the restaurant industry’s economic might

The National Restaurant Association Restaurant Industry Forecast, which is free to members, is an annual barometer of the industry’s economic strength. It provides national, regional and state sales and employment data, as well as information about operator and consumer trends. It covers sales growth in nearly 40 segments, including fullservice, limited service, social catering and on-site foodservice in hospitals, schools and businesses.

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Workforce outlook

Restaurant job creation continues to outpace that of other industries. In 2012, restaurant job growth rose 3 percent, compared to 1.4 percent for overall U.S. employment. This year, restaurant job growth is expected to rise 2.4 percent, compared to a projected 1.5 percent gain for total U.S. employment. That means 2013 is expected to be the 14th straight year that restaurant-industry employment will outpace overall employment. Overall, restaurants are expected to employ 13.1 million people, or 10 percent of the U.S. workforce.

Consumer attitudes

In addition to operator responses, the Forecast includes feedback culled from an annual NRA consumer survey. Their responses reveal a high pent-up demand for restaurants. Four of 10 adults said they weren’t visiting restaurants as often as they would have liked, compared to one in four during the mid-2000s, when the economy was stronger.

Top challenges

About 10 percent of respondents described the national economy as “excellent” or “good,” while the rest said it was “fair” or “poor.” As a result of poor consumer confidence, customer loyalty continues to challenge restaurants. According to the NRA operator survey, a majority of restaurateurs said customer loyalty was more difficult to maintain than it was two years ago.

On average, repeat customers represent sales of 71 percent of quickservice, 68 percent of fast casual, 64 of casual dining, 63 percent family dining and 51 percent of fine-dining restaurants. In the quickservice and fast-casual sub segments — where repeat customers are most critical for success — a solid proportion of operators reported gains in repeat business.

Research Reports

Summer 2013 publications

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