When restaurateur Richard Melman wants to spot emerging culinary trends, he goes to what he considers the ultimate source — his customers. As chairman and founder of Lettuce Entertain You Enterprises, Inc., a Chicago-based restaurant company, Melman operates 32 restaurant concepts, including the popular Maggiano’s Little Italy restaurant, which focuses on family-style Italian dining; Nacional 27, which features Latin American or Nuevo Latino cuisine; and Vong, which has a Thai-inspired French menu.

"I pay a lot of attention to what customers say," says Melman. "The majority of my time is spent in my restaurants talking to people. That’s how I do my market research. You’ll be surprised that people will tell you what you want to know." What do his customers say is popular today? "Asian has been hot, Latin food, steakhouses," he says. And to no one’s surprise, Melman has invested in all of those concepts.

Culinary crystal balls

Anecdotal evidence from restaurant customers isn’t the only way to spot hot new culinary trends. Just ask David Pursglove who heads up the TrendsAnalytics Group in Washington DC. For the past 34 years, he’s made a business out of forecasting trends. Pursglove and his staff carefully track the food and restaurant coverage in 22 publications and five broadcast programs. They painstakingly enter the information into a database that allows them to chart the incidence of references to specific foods. An increasing amount of references to a food type — such as Nuevo Latino cuisine — indicates that its popularity is growing.

But Pursglove is skeptical of items that rise rapidly to popularity. He says that such items tend to be short-lived fad — not real trends — and tend to crash into obscurity just as quickly as they rose to prominence. A real trend gains momentum slowly before it plateaus and then slowly decreases in popularity, according to Pursglove.

The media plays a big role in establishing trends, says Pursglove, which is why he relies so much on publications such as the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times and the Los Angeles Times. And it’s not only the news media that helps set trends, says Kurt Aebi, chef and development chair for McCormick & Company, a spice company based in Sparks, Maryland. "Today, it has a lot to do with TV chefs. Something they do catches on; you switch the channel, and someone else is making the same thing. Then people go to restaurants and start requesting that."

Of course, a trend’s roots run deeper than food columnists and TV chefs. "Population demographics affect culinary trends," says Hudson Riehle, vice president of the National Restaurant Association’s Research and Information Services Division. Among the current demographic trends: increased numbers of working moms with little time to cook at home; a population that travels more and thus is exposed to worldly cuisine; aging baby-boomers who are concerned about their health; an increase in the country’s Latin American population; and an increase in disposable income.

And beyond all those factors is an indefinable spark that makes one culinary item succeed and another fail. "Chefs are always looking for the next thing," says Adam Rapoport, restaurant editor for Time Out New York, a weekly guide to New York City entertainment. "They’re always looking for anything that will set them apart and put them on the map. Sometimes it takes; sometimes it doesn’t."

Trend hopping

Before a restaurateur invests in an emerging concept, he or she should examine whether it is a trend with staying power or a fad that’s here today, gone tomorrow. "If you invest a lot of money and the idea doesn’t stick, you’re in deep doo-doo," says Aebi. For example, when blackened fish and chicken soared to popularity in the early ’90s, McCormick invested in a manufacturing process for blackening spices. "But as soon as we had a solution, [blackening] was no longer popular," he says.

"[For a trend to become established,] it has to taste good, it has to look good — because people eat with their eyes — and it has to make sense," says Aebi. That final ingredient — whether the food "makes sense" — is frequently overlooked in the short term but must be present for a cuisine to have longevity. "With nouvelle cuisine, the food was excellent, the presentation was excellent, but you had to eat six or seven entrees to fill up. Something like that is not going to stick. It’s nice once or twice, but then you say, ‘Get me some hamburgers,’" he says.

Nevertheless, restaurateurs can profit from short-lived fads. "If you’re fast, get in on it, but be prepared to get out in a hurry," says Pursglove. "Getting out of a fad quickly is sometimes more important than getting in on one."

Although some restaurateurs are quick to overhaul their restaurants or open new ones to fit the latest trends, others prefer small changes. For example, in response to customer demand, Victor A. L. Gielisse, CMC, dean of culinary, baking and pastry at The Culinary Institute of America in Hyde Park, New York, says that he slowly introduced healthier entrees at his restaurant Actuelle, which he operated from 1985 to 1993 in Dallas. "You insert two or three items that are more health-conscious as an experiment. You see how they take off and build up from there," he says.

At Actuelle, Gielisse moved from rich, starchy sauces to lighter, more contemporary ones, such as fruit purees, demi-glaces and vegetable purees. "You ask yourself, how can I prepare the same dish, but modify it?"

The success of other restaurants can help indicate what trends to get in on. "I think [Nuevo Latino] is a hot trend that a lot of people are embracing now," says Steve Peterson, executive chef for Westin Hotels, which is operated by Star wood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide of White Plains, New York. Restaurants at the more than 100 Westin Hotels are conducting a two-month Nuevo Latino promotion that started in February. In addition to their regular menus, each restaurant will feature Nuevo Latino dishes such as "Ecuadorian Shrimp and Lobster Ceviche."

"We saw the success that [Nuevo Latino chef] Doug Rodriguez had at his restaurants. We feel that the time is right. Latin food is hot," says Peterson. As chef of New York City’s Patria restaurant, Rodriguez helped pioneer Nuevo Latino cuisine. He has since gone on to open Unico, his own Nuevo Latino restaurant in New York City.

Peterson stresses the importance of preparing a cuisine authentically. That’s why he worked with Rodriguez and chef Mark Miller of Santa Fe, New Mexico’s The Coyote Cafe in creating Westin’s Nuevo Latino dishes. Too often, chefs overreplicate and oversimplify the hottest cuisine — killing the trend before it has a chance to develop. That’s what happened with Southwestern cuisine, which some chefs simplified to spicy foods and chilies, Peterson says.

Melman advises restaurateurs to go beyond merely copying a hot trend. "Sometimes someone takes a thing that has been done and adds a twist. I always look for a hole in the marketplace, a way that I can do it better. . . . For example, brasseries and bistros are very vogue; I thought it would be nice to do a little French steakhouse and execute it very well." So Lettuce Entertain You opened Mon Ami Gabi in June 1998 in Chicago and in October 1999 in Las Vegas.

Melman also recommends taking some risks. "I do what I feel is right, realizing that in a life of a restaurant, things will change," he says. "If you’re too safe in what you do, you won’t get very exciting end results."

Here’s a look at what culinary professionals and industry analysts say are some of today’s most exciting culinary trends.

Luscious Latin fare

Nuevo Latino cuisine combines the influences of Latin American countries and the Caribbean by blending ingredients such as corn, plantains, chilies and tropical fruits. The results are dishes such as "Cornmeal-and-Chili-Crusted Oysters" and "Spiced Seared Strip Steak With Mango Mojo."

Nuevo Latino "is probably the hottest and most significant trend," says Pursglove. "And it’s not just because the Latino population is growing. I have a hunch that highly flavored foods may appeal to baby-boomers, who allegedly are losing their taste buds as they get older," he says. National Restaurant Association research shows that Generations X and Y also seem to be attracted to flavorful ethnic foods such as Nuevo Latino, says Riehle.

Rapoport has seen Nuevo Latino specialties crop up on menus throughout New York City. Especially popular is ceviche — raw fish marinated in citrus (usually lime) juice. Onions, tomatoes and green peppers are often added to the marinade.

Nuevo Latino is sizzling hot today, but will it be lukewarm by tomorrow? "It has staying power," says Rapoport. "I think it will last." But not everyone agrees. Chef Donald Spence of Baldwin’s Station restaurant in Sykesville, Maryland, views Nuevo Latino cuisine as a short-lived fad. "I like the food, but some of the customers are skeptical [about] it. They’re not grabbing hold of it like some other foods."

And even if Nuevo Latino continues to rise in popularity, don’t expect Americans to eat it daily. Instead, it’s one of many ethnic cuiscuisine'st Americans will rotate through to titillate their taste buds, says Daphne Derven, a food historian and curator for the American Center for Wine, Food and the Arts in Napa, California. "An even bigger trend is that we’re becoming more global in general and are switching back and forth between cuisines."

Noshes and nibbles

Tapas — small, appetizer-like dishes long popular in Spain — got a foothold in the United States in 1997, and are gaining an even greater following. According to the National Restaurant Association’s 1997 Menu Analysis, which compares menus from 1992 with those from 1997, "Spanish ‘tapas,’ the small plates of food originally eaten with a drink at the bar, have migrated to the dinner table as the idea of ‘grazing’ attracts many consumers. Evidence of tapas intertwined with foods from other parts of the world can be seen."

New York City’s Metrazur restaurant is among the eateries offering tapas-style dishes. Located in Grand Central Terminal and owned by celebrity chef Charlie Palmer, the new restaurant features "Lounge Plates" in addition to more traditional entrees in its 90-seat lounge area. "You might split a few of these dishes and have some drinks with some friends," says Palmer. His Lounge Plates include "Shaved Serrano Ham," "Maine Crab and Avocado Salad," an d "Tuna Tartare With Lime Zest and Ginger." A selection of Lounge Plates is presented in a three-tier holder.

Derven says that people enjoy the flexibility that tapas and other small dishes offer. "People are serious about sharing or perhaps only wanting a small meal. They want to be able to control their dining in ways they didn’t in the past." Nearly two-thirds of adults say that today’s tableservice restaurants make it easy for them to choose the portion size they want, according to the National Restaurant Association’s Tableservice Restaurant Trends — 1999.

Healthful and flavorful

Restaurant consumers are looking for healthier choices, in part because the population is aging, says Gielisse. "The year 2000 was a signal for many people, especially baby-boomers." The good news is that healthful foods don’t necessarily mean bland foods, he adds.

Consumers are flocking to healthful and flavorful ethnic cuisines, such as Asian and Mediterranean foods, he says. "They see it as food that is good for you," says Gielisse. With an emphasis on ingredients such as vegetables, grains and fish, those cuisines appeal to health-minded consumers.

Baldwin’s Station’s Spence is among those chefs who have increased their emphasis on healthy foods because of customer demand. "They say to me, ‘Chef, I need to watch my cholesterol.’ " In response, Spence uses canola oil, which is low in saturated fat, and substitutes demi-glaces for cream-based sauces.

Getting a cut of the business

Despite the trend toward healthier eating, beef entrees and steakhouses have been proliferating. According to the Denver-based National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA), restaurants sold 7.1 billion servings of beef in 1998, a 13 percent increase since 1990. In 1998, there were 6,454 casual steakhouses, a 10.7 percent increase over 1997, according to NPD/CREST and the NCBA.

Steakhouse chains such as Morton’s of Chicago and New York City-based Smith & Wollensky have been expanding rapidly. In December 1999, Morton’s opened its 50th restaurant. And Smith & Wollensky, which opened in 1977 in New York City, started expanding nationwide in 1997. It has since opened units in five other cities, including Chicago, Washington DC and Miami.

"Dining at a steakhouse is not something you do seven days a week," says Alan Stillman, chairman of The Smith & Wollensky Restaurant Group. "But when you want to treat yourself to a great steak, we have seen that guests are will ing to pay for great quality and a great experience. While it is true that people may not dine on steak at home as much as they used to, when they dine out it is a whole different story."

People are especially willing to splurge on beef during prosperous times. "Disposable income is back," says Gielisse. "We’re in the best economic times. Things are very good. People won’t sweat it to spend $40 on dinner."

Indispensable ingredients

"Savvy chefs have come to the conclusion that they’re not going to come up with some brilliant new cooking method," says Palmer. "Instead they’re concentrating on using better ingredients." That’s why in 1993 he co-founded the Egg Farm Dairy, a creamery in Peekskill, New York, that produces his dairy products. "Now we’re using better clabbered cream, better butter, better cheeses. It definitely enhances the menu. The more flavor you start with the better the product."

According to the National Restaurant Association’s Tableservice Restaurant Trends — 1998, 62 percent of tableservice restaurants with an average check of more than $25 and 47 percent of those with an average check of $15 to $24.99 report that locally grown produce is gaining in popularity.

"There’s definitely a lot of interest in where our food comes from," says Derven. "We want to know who grew the vegetables, who raised the animals, who made the cheese. There’s also a lot of interest in buying locally and eating seasonally. . . . There’s a focus on the quality of the product rather than the elaborateness of it."

East meets West

Whether it’s called fusion or eclecticism, blending cuisines is one of today’s hottest culinary concepts. "Fusion is carefully selecting foods from parts of the world that are not geographically close and combining ones that go well together," explains Pursglove. The combinations are numerous — Thai and French, American and Indian, Southwest and Asian.

For example, Atlanta’s Fusebox restaurant, which opened in October 1998, combines Asian and American cuisine. "It’s modern American food with an Asian influence," says Marketing Director Jody Clarke. Traditional American dishes are combined with Asian spices such as miso. Menu items are presented in an Asian style, served in bamboo steamers and Japanese bento boxes.

"[Fusion is] very popular," says Pursglove. "How long it will last, I don’t know. It’s had a very quick rise to popularity, and often that’s the kiss of death." He predicts that fusion foods’ popularity will peak this summer before starting to decline.

Back to basics

Although fusion cuisine remains hot in many kitchens, other chefs and industry experts herald the resurgence of simple foods and flavors. "The trend in foods is going back to the basics," says Peterson. "People are tired of fusion food because it became confusion food. It became anything goes with blending of everything. People are starting to say, ‘We’ve had enough; just give me a good steak.’"

Westin’s back-to-basics cuisine includes an "Essence of Flavors" promotion scheduled for this summer. Working with chef Joachim Splichal of Los Angeles’ Patina restaurant, Peterson has developed entrees that he describes as "basic, wholesome cooking." For example, one featured entree includes lamb chops, garlic mashed potatoes and crunchy artichokes.

An increase in dining out has also spawned the need for restaurants with casual, simple fare, such as brasseries, bistros and trattorias. That’s not to say that fine dining is out. "People have different cravings in different situations, " says Palmer. "When people come to [my restaurant] Aureole they expect wonderful food presentation. They often come here for a celebration. But they don’t want to eat this food every night. Metrazur is a place that they can go with their friends for a quick bite before the show."

David Roberts, chef of the Deux Plex bistro in Atlanta, says that his customers crave simple, comfort foods. Deux Plex’s entrees include comfort foods such as braised pork shank and beef stews. "They’re not pureed and stacked with m esclun a mile high," says Roberts, who also notes that the entrees "are going over with flying colors."

Chef-driven cuisine

With such diversity in culinary trends, there’s something for every chef to add to his or her menu. But the real trend may be for chefs to expand beyond what analysts have defined as "what’s hot and what’s not" and to explore their own culinary creativity. "There are a lot of individual styles," says Palmer. "My personal style and vision of food is what I do."

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