The approaching mid-term congressional elections will have a significant impact on job growth and other issues that affect the restaurant industry.
This fall, 37 Senate, 435 House and 36 gubernatorial races are on the ballot. Changes in the make-up of the Senate and House of Representatives will affect immigration reform, small businesses’ access to credit, union card check and other issues. As candidates debate those issues, the restaurant industry can’t afford to miss out on such an important election.
Over the years, mid-term elections have become indirect referendums on the sitting president’s performance. Over the past 17 mid-term elections, the president’s party has lost an average of 28 House seats and four Senate seats. Pundits are closely watching the races to determine how many seats the majority party will lose and where.
Senate
Next year, the Senate is expected to have more new faces with 13 open and several competitive races. An open race is where the incumbent isn’t running for re-election. Competitive races are those where incumbents face challengers.
At this time, the Senate consists of 59 Democrats and 41 Republicans.
To gain a majority, the GOP must win 10 seats. Political analysts say Republicans could take over six or seven Democratic seats and pick up seats in Arkansas, Delaware, Indiana and North Dakota. To gain the majority, Republicans must win solidly blue states like California, Washington and Wisconsin.
Although Californians haven’t elected a Republican to the Senate in nearly 20 years, the Massachusetts election last January showed anything’s possible. In that race, a state that hadn’t had a Republican senator in nearly 40 years elected Republican Scott Brown to replace the late Ted Kennedy. In November, California businesswoman Carly Fiorina is challenging three-term Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer.
This year, Democrats are defending six open Senate seats, including those that belonged to President Obama in Illinois and Vice President Biden in Delaware. Others include those held by Chris Dodd in Connecticut, Evan Bayh in Indiana and Byron Dorgan in North Dakota.
As for the competitive races, Democratic seats in Colorado, Illinois, Nevada and Pennsylvania and Republican seats in Florida, Kentucky, Missouri and Ohio are considered “toss-ups,” or up for grabs by either party. Many of those races are too close to call, as the political climate changes daily.
House of Representatives
The House currently consists of 255 Democrats and 178 Republicans. Two seats are vacant. To get 218, a majority, the GOP will need to win 40 seats.
About 10 percent of the House races are open seats. Democrats are defending 19 open seats, and Republicans are defending 23. Regardless of the outcome, at least 24 states will have a new member of Congress next year. Florida will have five new representatives, and Arkansas, Indiana, Kansas, Michigan, South Carolina and Tennessee each will have three.
Seventy to 75 House races are considered competitive. Half are held by so-called “majority makers,” Democrats elected in 2006 and 2008 who helped propel the party to power. Of the 57 Democrats elected at that time, 34 face challengers. Many of those races are in Colorado, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Virginia — all states that turned blue last cycle, but where red is resurging.
