Research
November 06, 2026
Total U.S. jobs
Overall U.S. job growth was solid in October
Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 165,000 in October, far exceeding consensus expectations of roughly 60,000. Revisions to the August and September data also added a combined 84,000 jobs, bringing average employment gains over the past three months to 137,000 and reinforcing the labor market’s underlying resilience. Continued growth in employment and wages remains critical to sustaining consumer spending, the primary driver of U.S. economic growth.
For restaurant operators, a stable labor market should help support consumer spending and restaurant traffic in the months ahead, even as higher gasoline prices and weak consumer confidence continue to weigh on demand. At the same time, geopolitical uncertainty and persistent inflation pressures present ongoing downside risks, complicating the economic outlook.
These crosscurrents will remain a key consideration for the Federal Reserve as policymakers balance inflation concerns against signs of a gradually moderating labor market. With labor market conditions remaining relatively strong, the latest employment report likely reinforces expectations that the Federal Open Market Committee will implement one additional interest rate increase at its December 7-8 meeting, particularly amid still-elevated inflationary pressures.
Labor force participation has been a concern throughout much of this year, but recent trends have been encouraging. The participation rate has risen for three consecutive months, increasing from 61.4% in July to 61.9% in October, its highest level since March. Even so, participation remains below the 62.4% rate recorded in December, leaving roughly 812,000 fewer individuals in the labor force year to date, although that shortfall has improved significantly from approximately 2.4 million fewer workers in July.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged down from 4.2% in September to 4.1% in October. The number of unemployed individuals ticked down 7.11 million in September to 7.07 million in October. As such, the labor market remains relatively healthy by historical standards.
On the wage front, average hourly earnings for private-sector production and nonsupervisory workers increased 0.4% in October to $32.75, rising 3.3% over the past 12 months. Overall, wage growth remains relatively solid by historical standards, suggesting that workers continue to see income gains that can help support consumer spending.
Job growth in October was mixed. Gains in employment were led by professional and business services; private education and health services; trade, transportation and utilities (including retail trade); and manufacturing. At the same time, there were weaker jobs data for leisure and hospitality (including restaurants). Below is a detailed breakdown of October’s employment changes by sector, ranked from highest to lowest:
For restaurant operators, a stable labor market should help support consumer spending and restaurant traffic in the months ahead, even as higher gasoline prices and weak consumer confidence continue to weigh on demand. At the same time, geopolitical uncertainty and persistent inflation pressures present ongoing downside risks, complicating the economic outlook.
These crosscurrents will remain a key consideration for the Federal Reserve as policymakers balance inflation concerns against signs of a gradually moderating labor market. With labor market conditions remaining relatively strong, the latest employment report likely reinforces expectations that the Federal Open Market Committee will implement one additional interest rate increase at its December 7-8 meeting, particularly amid still-elevated inflationary pressures.
Labor force participation has been a concern throughout much of this year, but recent trends have been encouraging. The participation rate has risen for three consecutive months, increasing from 61.4% in July to 61.9% in October, its highest level since March. Even so, participation remains below the 62.4% rate recorded in December, leaving roughly 812,000 fewer individuals in the labor force year to date, although that shortfall has improved significantly from approximately 2.4 million fewer workers in July.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged down from 4.2% in September to 4.1% in October. The number of unemployed individuals ticked down 7.11 million in September to 7.07 million in October. As such, the labor market remains relatively healthy by historical standards.
On the wage front, average hourly earnings for private-sector production and nonsupervisory workers increased 0.4% in October to $32.75, rising 3.3% over the past 12 months. Overall, wage growth remains relatively solid by historical standards, suggesting that workers continue to see income gains that can help support consumer spending.
Job growth in October was mixed. Gains in employment were led by professional and business services; private education and health services; trade, transportation and utilities (including retail trade); and manufacturing. At the same time, there were weaker jobs data for leisure and hospitality (including restaurants). Below is a detailed breakdown of October’s employment changes by sector, ranked from highest to lowest:
- Professional and business services: +70,000
- Private education and health services: +53,000
- Trade, transportation, and utilities: +22,000 (retail trade: +6,000)
- Manufacturing: +19,000
- State government: +8,000
- Financial activities: +7,000
- Other services: +6,000
- Federal government: -1,000
- Information: -1,000
- Local government: -1,000
- Mining and logging: -1,000
- Construction: -3,000
- Leisure and hospitality: -13,000 (eating and drinking places: -7,200)